AI's economic boost isn't showing up in GDP, and Goldman says that's a $115 billion blind spot

"Revenue at US companies providing AI infrastructure has risen by $400bn since 2022, which at first glance seems to suggest that AI has been a meaningful driver of economic growth recently. But official numbers tell a different story. AI technology has lifted real US economic activity by about $160 billion since 2022, or 0.7% of GDP. Yet only around $45 billion, or 0.2% of GDP, of AI-spurred growth has been recorded in official statistics. That leaves roughly $115 billion uncounted, according to the analysts."

""The measured impact of AI on GDP is likely much smaller because the BEA's methodology for estimating GDP treats semiconductors as intermediate inputs, which are only counted towards final demand when the products (e.g., consumer laptops) that they enable are sold," wrote the Goldman analysts. So, high-performance semiconductors - the chips powering AI training - are classified as intermediate inputs. When they're imported, the value is deducted from GDP, and their use in building AI systems doesn't appear as investment."

Revenue at US companies providing AI infrastructure rose by $400 billion since 2022. Real US economic activity increased by about $160 billion since 2022, equal to 0.7% of GDP, while only about $45 billion (0.2% of GDP) appears in official statistics, leaving roughly $115 billion uncounted. The Bureau of Economic Analysis treats semiconductors as intermediate inputs, counting their value toward final demand only when enabled end products are sold; imported chips are deducted from GDP and their use in building AI systems does not register as investment. As a result, measured GDP understates AI's contribution to growth.

Read at Business Insider