"An artificial intelligence system has beaten scores of forecasting enthusiasts, including several professionals, in a contest to predict events ranging from bust-ups between Donald Trump and Elon Musk to Kemi Badenoch being removed from the Conservative party leadership. A British AI startup, co-founded by a former Google DeepMind researcher, has ranked in the top 10 of an international forecasting competition, which requires entrants to forecast the likelihood of 60 events over the summer."
"ManticAI came eighth in the Metaculus Cup, run by a San Francisco-based forecasting company that tries to predict the future for investment funds and corporations. AI's performance still lags behind the best human forecasters, but it has left some believing AI could outstrip humans sooner than most expected. 'It's certainly a weird feeling to be outdone by several bots at this point,' said Ben Shindel, one of the professional forecasters who found himself behind AI during the contest before finishing above Mantic."
"What Mantic has done is impressive, said Deger Turan, the chief executive of Metaculus. Turan estimated that AI would be on a par or better than the best human forecasters by 2029, but said that in general currently human forecasters are doing better than AI forecasters. On complex forecasts that rely on predicting interrelated events, AI systems can still struggle to carry out logic verification checks when translating the knowledge into a final prediction, he said."
ManticAI, a British startup co‑founded by a former Google DeepMind researcher, placed eighth in the Metaculus Cup by forecasting the likelihood of 60 events over the summer. The system outperformed many forecasting enthusiasts and several professional forecasters on questions ranging from a potential bust-up between Donald Trump and Elon Musk to whether Kemi Badenoch might be removed from Conservative leadership. Contest scoring judged predictions as of 1 September. Metaculus's CEO said the result is impressive and projected AI parity with top human forecasters by 2029, while noting AI still lags on complex, interrelated forecasts that require logic verification.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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