"In the dead of winter, when I'm not refreshing MLB Trade Rumors or yelling at Siri to ask if my Jeff Passan Twitter alerts are broken, I like to look at player projections on Fangraphs. Despite the fact that they are a complete fantasy land, they provide a good baseline for our expectations for the upcoming season. Drawing from past performances of players, the various systems weigh more heavily towards the most recent seasons,"
"Steamer: Created and maintained by Jared Cross, these are always the first projections released, usually not long after the World Series wraps up. They've been around for a long time and are widely considered to be among the best systems for projections. The BAT: Derek Carty's projection system, which is very popular in fantasy baseball and DFS circles. OOPSY: Created by Jordan Rosenblum over the last couple of years."
Fangraphs projection systems provide baseline expectations for player performance by weighting recent seasons more heavily and incorporating historical career trends of similar players. Three widely used systems are Steamer, The BAT, and OOPSY, each with different pedigrees and adoption in analysis and fantasy circles. Projections intentionally regress extreme past results toward a 50th-percentile outcome, producing conservative estimates rather than optimistic outliers. Uncertainty in roster moves and innings allocations makes rate statistics more reliable than projected counting stats for evaluating the Red Sox starting staff. Projections should be interpreted as probabilistic baselines subject to change with trades and role shifts.
#baseball-projections #red-sox-starting-rotation #steamer--the-bat--oopsy #regression-and-rate-stats
Read at Over the Monster
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]