"And finally, the thing we seem to talk about more than anything else these days, the percentage odds to make the MLB playoffs (as per FanGraphs): Boston Red Sox: 90.1% Detroit Tigers: 85.2% Cleveland Guardians: 59.5% Houston Astros: 65.3% So to wrap things up here: the Red Sox, Tigers, Guardians, and Astros are four teams fighting for three postseason spots. One of those four teams definitely will not make the playoffs."
"If it seems weird to spend so much time talking about percentage odds when translating percentage odds into common language results in apparent contradictions, I agree. And it leads me to one inescapable conclusion: looking at and talking about playoff percentage odds (or even worse, the in-game win probability odds we see so much these days on broadcasts) is a waste of time and mind-numbingly dumb."
Four MLB teams — the Red Sox, Tigers, Guardians, and Astros — compete for three remaining postseason spots with specific remaining schedules. FanGraphs assigns Red Sox 90.1%, Tigers 85.2%, Guardians 59.5%, and Astros 65.3% playoff probabilities. Those percentages suggest each team is likely to make the playoffs despite the certainty that one of the four will miss out. Percentage odds and in-game win probabilities can generate apparent contradictions when translated into common-language claims about outcomes. Treating these probabilities as definitive results overlooks combinatorial constraints and can produce misleading impressions. A simple physical analogy demonstrates the mismatch between probabilistic statements and guaranteed outcomes.
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