"Bullock downgraded the stock after reviewing web traffic trends by channel. He noted that SEO-driven visits fell 23.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, with the decline worsening to 25.3% in July, likely due to Google's broader rollout of AI Overviews. Since less than 30% of signups come from Google, he built a framework using Similarweb data to gauge growth impact."
"Bullock said that while shares are already down 30% since the second quarter earnings, ongoing fundamental challenges and AI-driven search risks make risk/reward balanced. The analyst is not calling for a 2025 revenue guide miss but trimmed 2026 revenue estimates and cut his price target to $205 from $240. Bullock warned that if July 2025 traffic declines persist, Monday.com could see meaningful self-serve headwinds in the second half of 2025 and 2026."
Monday.com shares traded lower amid growing concerns from declining SEO-driven traffic and rising marketing costs that could pressure self-serve growth. SEO-driven visits fell 23.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025 and declined 25.3% in July, likely linked to Google's wider rollout of AI Overviews. Less than 30% of signups originate from Google, and a Similarweb-based framework suggests sustained traffic weakness could meaningfully reduce self-serve gross ARR additions. The stock was downgraded from Buy to Neutral and the price target cut to $205 from $240. Continued July-like trends could translate to a roughly 5.2% decline in self-serve gross ARR added in 2026, about a two-point drag on total gross ARR added.
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