Wall Street's Top Chartist Warns US Tech Stocks Now At Highest Concentration Since the 2000 Bubble
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Wall Street's Top Chartist Warns US Tech Stocks Now At Highest Concentration Since the 2000 Bubble
"“The technology sector is now 41% of the investable assets here in the US. Semiconductors are 50% of that total technology sector. We haven't seen levels like this since Y2K in the year 2000. I think that's a risk that investors do need to monitor.”"
"“Today's concentration is driven by a much smaller set of names. NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) alone carries a market cap of roughly $5.3 trillion, with a trailing P/E near 45 and a forward P/E around 27. The stock is up 79.54% over the past year. Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL) sits at $4.3 trillion, and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT) at $3 trillion. Three names represent well over $12 trillion of capitalization.”"
"“Inside the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( NYSEARCA:SPY), Information Technology is 32.91% of the index, with NVIDIA at 7.58%, Apple at 6.66% and Microsoft at 4.91%. Johnson's 41% figure for total US investable assets sits above that index-only weighting, which is the point. The semiconductor slice is even tighter: NVDA, AVGO, MU, AMD, AMAT and LRCX dominate sector ETFs.”"
"“Johnson framed the concentration call alongside two macro signals. The CRB commodity index is breaking out to multi-year highs, and bond yields are not falling, contradicting current rate-cut expectations. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.42%, in the 86.7th percentile of its 12-month range. WTI crude has rallied from near $65/barrel in late February 2026 to $109.76 on May 4, 2026.”"
Technology now represents about 41% of US investable assets, with semiconductors making up roughly half of that technology exposure. The last time similar concentration levels appeared was around the Y2K period, followed by a multi-year drawdown in tech and semiconductors. Concentration today is driven by a smaller set of mega-cap names, including NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft, which together account for more than $12 trillion in capitalization. Within the S&P 500, information technology is heavily weighted, and semiconductors are concentrated in a limited group of companies. Macro conditions also add pressure, with commodities rising and bond yields not declining, which can challenge equity multiples.
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