"Bitcoin price is once again testing the patience of traders, moving within one of the tightest percentile price ranges in its history. For more than four months, BTC has traded between roughly $106,000 and $123,000. This period of quiet has pushed volatility to its lowest level ever recorded on six-month metrics. Each time in the past that volatility has fallen to similar depths, it has been followed by a major trending move."
"The current lull stands out even compared to previous phases of consolidation in this cycle. Despite occasional liquidations and sharp wicks, the broader price structure has barely shifted since June. One of the most telling metrics is the weekly Bollinger Band Width - the indicator has now reached its lowest weekly reading ever. In every past instance that Bitcoin's bands have squeezed to this degree, bitcoin price volatility expansion followed shortly after."
"In this cycle alone, there have already been five examples where similar consolidations ended with significant moves exceeding 65% gains within 100 days. Averaging those historical fractals to today's setup would imply a potential bitcoin price target between $170,000 and $180,000 by 2026 if the next expansion phase mirrors prior behavior. However, bitcoin price volatility compression does not guarantee immediate upside. Previous examples have shown that these low-volatility periods can extend for several months before a breakout occurs."
Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range between roughly $106,000 and $123,000 for over four months, compressing volatility to six-month lows. The weekly Bollinger Band Width has reached its lowest weekly reading ever, indicating an unusually tight consolidation. Comparable historical squeezes have been followed by large volatility expansions and major trending moves, with five instances this cycle producing gains above 65% within 100 days. Averaging those fractals suggests a potential $170,000–$180,000 target by 2026 if history repeats. Low volatility can persist for months, and macro catalysts like Fed rate cuts or gold reversals could trigger renewed volatility.
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
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