The current Bitcoin price around $120,000 has led to increased speculation about its position in the market cycle. Analysis suggests a potential peak could occur within the next three months, based on historical cycle data. Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 975 days into the ongoing cycle, with earlier cycles peaking around 1,059 to 1,068 days. A significant factor in this cycle's uniqueness is the absorption of over 1.2 million BTC by ETFs since January 2024, altering supply-demand dynamics. Additionally, 20% of Bitcoin's total supply may not enter the market due to institutional holdings and lost coins.
Current speculations about Bitcoin suggest it could peak within the next three months, with historical price patterns hinting at a similar trajectory to previous cycles.
With Bitcoin's price around $120,000, we are 975 days into the current cycle, potentially indicating a peak within 100 days based on past cycles.
Recent Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Flows show over 1.2 million BTC absorbed since January 2024, significantly changing the supply-demand dynamics and impacting market predictions.
The combination of Bitcoin held by treasury companies, sovereign holders, and lost coins implies that over 20% of total supply might not be circulating, affecting future price stability.
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