As Bitcoin enters the second half of 2025, it faces mixed influences, balancing supportive conditions with macroeconomic, policy, and geopolitical risks. Following a strong Q2 rally due to expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing and spot Bitcoin ETF interest from institutional investors, the market is now marked by volatility. A potential rate cut by the Fed could benefit BTC, but global geopolitical tensions, notably in the Middle East and U.S.-China relations, complicate sentiment toward the cryptocurrency amidst ongoing instability.
Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity conditions means it could benefit from declining global interest rates, particularly if the U.S. Federal Reserve begins easing in September.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and U.S.-China tensions, affect Bitcoin's appeal, leading to mixed reactions in risk asset markets.
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