"He pointed out that graduates from the age of 22 to 27 have historically enjoyed a lower jobless rate than the overall workforce. But that started to change around 2015-well before the advent of OpenAI's chatbot in late 2022 and the rush into generative AI that followed. In fact, data compiled by the New York Fed shows that the unemployment rate for recent grads edged above the total rate in December 2014, when it was 5.6% versus 5.5%."
"In fact, data compiled by the New York Fed shows that the unemployment rate for recent grads edged above the total rate in December 2014, when it was 5.6% versus 5.5%. The years that followed saw the two rates go back and forth, trading places. But during the pandemic, joblessness among recent college grads began consistently exceeding the overall rate. And in early 2022, the separation between the two trend lines started widening."
""Why this change? It may be due to the increase of college educated people in the workforce generally these days, so the new entrants are competing for jobs with more experienced college graduates," Yardeni wrote. Citing the Education Data Initiative, he added that the percentage of Americans with a bachelor's degree or higher is now 37.5%, up from 25.6% in 2000. And between 1993 and 2023, the number college graduates soared 74.9% w"
Parental encouragement of college has increased the share of workers with bachelor's degrees, altering the labor market dynamics for new graduates. Graduates aged 22 to 27 historically had lower unemployment than the overall workforce, but that advantage began to erode around 2015. New York Fed data shows recent-grad unemployment briefly exceeded the total rate in December 2014 and then fluctuated. During the pandemic recent-graduate joblessness consistently exceeded the overall rate, with a wider gap emerging in early 2022. The jobless rate for all college graduates across ages has stayed below the total rate for decades. Recent-graduate unemployment was 4.8% in June versus 4.0% overall, and rising college attainment—37.5% with bachelor's degrees today, up from 25.6% in 2000—plus a 74.9% increase in graduates since 1993 have intensified competition between new and experienced degree holders.
#recent-college-graduate-unemployment #higher-education-attainment #labor-market-competition #pandemic-employment-trends
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