"The almanac is known for making predictions based on secret formulas in the months leading up to a new season. This year, it predicted a cooler and drier October. But the National Weather Service paints a different picture. The agency's parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the New York region has a 40 to 50% chance of a warmer-than-average fall."
""It's much more difficult to predict climate swings versus the day-to-day weather ... It's kind of like a cascading effect where you only have so many options for what we can for weather tomorrow," he told Gothamist on Sunday. "And then you look three days from now, five days from now, seven days from now. And it gets harder and harder to predict what could happen because you'll have more possibilities.""
Forecasters say this fall could feel warmer than normal. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicted a cooler and drier October based on secret formulas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assigns the New York region a 40 to 50% chance of a warmer-than-average fall. Meteorologists caution that seasonal forecasts are difficult to make because long-term weather models produce many possible outcomes as time horizons lengthen. Short-term forecasts call for cooler Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 70s, and rain beginning Tuesday evening through the weekend with 40 to 50% daily precipitation chances. The autumn equinox brings longer nights and shorter days.
Read at Gothamist
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