Odds are increasing for a 'super El Nino' this summer. Here's what that means for Mass.

"A potentially powerful El Nio is expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters say it could grow into a rare "super" El Nio later this year. Scientists are still determining just how strong the event may become, as the chances increase for one of the most intense El Nio events on record - a phenomenon that can alter weather patterns across the globe."

"Occurring roughly every three to seven years, an El Nio is a climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. A "super" El Nio occurs when those temperatures rise even further. Christopher Skinner, a professor of atmospheric sciences at UMass Lowell, said waters must warm about 2 degrees Celsius above average for the event to be classified as a "super" El Nio."

"In Massachusetts, the impacts are expected to be less dramatic than in tropical or southern regions of the world. Still, climatologists say residents could experience a hotter, more humid summer and a reduced risk of Atlantic hurricanes. The last "super" El Nio occurred in 2015-16 and produced one of the warmest winters on record across parts of New England, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

"Scientists are not yet completely certain a "super" El Nio will develop, Skinner noted, but an El Nio event itself is expected. Researchers will likely know more by June or July. Some forecasts project Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise close to 3 degrees Celsius above average by late 2026, potentially making it one of the strongest El Nio events on record."

A potentially powerful El Nio is expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean and could intensify into a rare super El Nio later this year. El Nio events occur every three to seven years when equatorial Pacific surface waters become significantly warmer than average. A super El Nio requires temperatures to rise about 2 degrees Celsius above average. Scientists are still assessing how strong the event may become, with more information expected by June or July. The last super El Nio in 201516 produced one of the warmest winters on record across parts of New England. Forecasts project temperatures could approach 3 degrees Celsius above average by late 2026. Massachusetts impacts are expected to include a hotter, more humid summer and a reduced risk of Atlantic hurricanes.

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