"Expected global output of coal, oil and gas for 2030 is now 120 percent more than what would be consistent with pathways to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and 77 percent higher than scenarios to keep warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). The greater the warming, the more severe the consequences will be on extreme weather, rising seas and other impacts."
"While previous installments of the report were published under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Program, this year's version was issued independently. In a sign of the world's continuing failure to limit fossil fuel use, the modeling scenarios the report uses are becoming obsolete. Because nations have continued to burn more coal, gas and oil every year, future cuts would now need to be even steeper than what is reflected in the report to keep climate targets within reach."
All but three of twenty nations plan increased production in 2030 of at least one fossil fuel, and eleven now project higher production than they did two years earlier. Expected global output of coal, oil and gas for 2030 is 120 percent higher than pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and 77 percent higher than scenarios for keeping warming below 2°C. Continued annual burning of fossil fuels has made modeling scenarios obsolete, so future emissions cuts would need to be even steeper to meet climate targets. China, the United States and Russia accounted for over half of extraction-based emissions in 2022. Subsidies and tax breaks lower production costs, increasing supply and demand.
Read at Ars Technica
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