"The danger lies in the demand itself, but also in how Europe responds. The EU has reached a moment of truth. If it cannot defend one of its member states whose most basic interests are under direct threat, then the EU is weakened as a geopolitical actor and emptied of purpose. For too long, European leaders have clung to a comforting but false belief that the EU cannot use its economic power against the US, because Europe and Ukraine depend on Washington for security."
"Trade conflicts, like coercive bargaining and military deterrence, are shaped in large part by escalation dominance the ability to convince the other side that you are more willing and more capable of sustaining pressure. That dominance does not rest on size and leverage alone, but on unity and determination. On both counts, Europe has recently failed itself. The clearest example came last April, when the US imposed its liberation day tariffs."
European leaders face direct US economic coercion aimed at Greenland and Denmark, including explicit tariff threats to enforce political and territorial demands. The EU's response will determine its geopolitical credibility and purpose. Appeasement and restraint invite further pressure rather than stability. Escalation dominance—convincing an adversary of greater willingness and capacity to sustain pressure—depends on unity and determination as much as leverage. Europe recently failed to exercise that dominance, hesitating during last April's tariffs and allowing a conciliatory Turnberry deal that weakened its position. To preserve influence, the EU must act collectively and decisively using economic power when necessary.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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