Sinners or One Battle: what can we learn from this year's anonymous Oscar ballots?

"It took a great deal of blood, sweat and tweets, but in 2016 the Academy finally took notice and started to embrace both diversity and modernity. The #OscarsSoWhite furore over two straight years of all-white nominees led to a dramatic shake-up and one that has continued ever since with more women, people of colour and international voters added to what had been an overwhelmingly homogenous base."

"It has all led to an Oscars race that is increasingly harder to predict using old-fashioned thinking in ways that have become rather thrilling over time, the idea of an Oscar movie now far more slippery. Films such as Parasite, Anora, Moonlight, Anatomy of a Fall, Nomadland, Get Out and The Zone of Interest have now found their way into the major categories in past years."

"With just days to go, it's yet another year that's excitingly tough to call, one of many reasons why this year's discourse has been more exhaustingly toxic than usual, and it's led to a more determined scour for clues that might shine light on what Sunday shall bring."

Following the #OscarsSoWhite controversy of 2015-2016, the Academy implemented significant changes by expanding its voter base to include more women, people of color, and international members. This transformation has fundamentally altered Oscar predictability and expanded the types of films recognized in major categories. Films like Parasite, Moonlight, Get Out, and Nomadland now compete alongside traditional prestige pictures. The increased diversity has made the race harder to predict using conventional metrics, creating more thrilling and unpredictable outcomes. This year's Oscar discourse reflects continued progression with foreign language films, outsider narratives, and complex characters gaining recognition. Anonymous ballot leaks provide some insight into voting patterns, though they should be interpreted cautiously given the Academy's expanded size and evolving preferences.

Read at www.theguardian.com