"That aside, though, it's at least marginally interesting to think about final win totals that will or won't be sufficient to make the playoffs this year. 86 was the magic number last year for both the Tigers and Royals; the Diamondbacks somehow made the playoffs with 84 wins in 2023. In the inaugural season of this stupid playoff system, it was again 86 wins, in benefit of the Rays."
"This year, central estimates suggest that the Mariners will finish with 87 wins, and the Mets with 86, to take the final playoff spot in their respective league. The Mets and Mariners currently have 17 games left, so they'll need to go 10-7 to hit those totals. Does 86 seem like the right sneak-in number to you? It's been the right number in two of the three seasons under this system so far, so, probably - but, what ya got?"
Wild Card races are chaotic in both leagues. The Guardians sit two games behind the Mariners in the AL, with the Rangers 1.5 games back. In the NL, the Giants have surged past the Reds and stand two games behind the Mets. Of those teams, only the Rangers appear to have a plausible path given proximity, schedule, and talent. Historically, 86 wins has often been the sneak-in threshold; the Diamondbacks reached the postseason with 84 in 2023. Estimates place the Mariners at 87 and the Mets at 86; each has 17 games left and would need a 10-7 finish. Braves' rotation injuries and late collapse deepen the disappointment.
Read at Battery Power
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