"A new artificial intelligence (AI) tool can forecast a person's risk of developing more than 1,000 diseases, in some cases providing a prediction decades in advance. The model, called Delphi-2M, uses health records and lifestyle factors to estimate the likelihood that a person will develop diseases such as cancer, skin diseases and immune conditions up to 20 years ahead of time."
"Researchers have already developed AI-based tools to predict a person's risk of developing certain conditions, including some cancers and cardiovascular disease. But most of these tools estimate the risk of only one disease, says study co-author Moritz Gerstung, a data scientist at the German Cancer Research Center in Heidelberg. A health-care professional would have to run dozens of them to deliver a comprehensive answer, he says."
Delphi-2M forecasts risk for more than 1,000 diseases and can provide predictions up to 20 years ahead by combining electronic health records with lifestyle information. The model adapts a generative pre-trained transformer architecture to produce multi-disease risk estimates and generate future health trajectories. Training used a single United Kingdom data set, which limits demonstrated generalizability but demonstrates potential to identify high-risk individuals and enable earlier preventive measures. The multi-disease capability reduces the need to run many single-disease models, streamlining comprehensive risk assessment for potential clinical use after broader validation.
Read at www.nature.com
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