"A new artificial intelligence (AI) tool can forecast a person's risk of developing more than 1,000 diseases, in some cases providing a prediction decades in advance. The model, called Delphi-2M, uses health records and lifestyle factors to estimate the likelihood a person will develop diseases such as cancer, skin diseases and immune conditions up to 20 years ahead of time."
"To address this, Gerstung and his colleagues modified a type of large language model (LLM) called a generative pre-trained transformer (GPT), that forms the underpinning of AI chatbots such as ChatGPT. When asked a question, GPTs provide outputs that, according to their training on vast volumes of data, are statistically probable. The authors designed their modified LLM to forecast a person's likelihood of developing 1,258 diseases on the basis of their past medical history."
"Researchers have already developed AI-based tools to predict a person's risk of developing certain conditions, including some cancers and cardiovascular disease. But most of these tools estimate the risk of only one disease, says study co-author Moritz Gerstung, a data scientist at the German Cancer Research Center in Heidelberg. "A health-care professional would have to run dozens of them to deliver a comprehensive answer," he says."
Delphi-2M predicts individual risk for 1,258 diseases by combining past medical records with age, sex, body-mass index and lifestyle factors. The model is a modified generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) that generates probabilistic future health trajectories up to 20 years ahead. Training used a United Kingdom data set. The multi-disease framework enables simultaneous estimation across cancers, skin disorders, immune conditions and other diseases, offering potential to identify high-risk individuals for early preventive measures. The approach consolidates many single-disease risk tools into one unified system, streamlining comprehensive risk assessment.
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