"The formula to determine the magic number is as follows: 162 (Total Number of Games) - Team A's Wins - Team B's losses + 1 (To represent the starting magic number of 163 at the start of a season) Blue Jays Magic Number Update: Under double digits to get to the postseason For the Blue Jays, there are two numbers to follow until the final day of the regular season: Their playoff birth and the right to be called the winner of the American League East. Playoff birth: 9"
"At the start of the season, the Blue Jays' playoff odds were at 43.6% per Fangraphs. Following a disastrous 2024 season that saw them at the bottom of the division with a 74-88 record, expectations were low for Toronto coming into 2025. After winning eight of ten series by June 30th, the odds jumped to 68.1%. By the end of August, it skyrocketed to 99.6% and now at an even 100% today."
The magic number equals 162 minus the target team's wins minus the trailing team's losses, plus one. The calculation uses the losses of the team competing for the sixth playoff spot as the trailing team. Toronto currently has 84 wins and the Texas Rangers have 70 losses, producing a magic number of nine. Toronto's playoff probability rose from 43.6% preseason to 100% after a strong stretch, including winning eight of ten series by June 30 and surging to 99.6% by the end of August. The magic number will continue to fall as Toronto wins or rival losses accumulate.
Read at Jays Journal
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