This Is What Might Happen If Russia Ever Joined NATO

"NATO was founded in 1949 for the collective self-defense of the Western allied countries against Soviet expansionism. For Russia to join, it would have to experience a political and social transformation that would make it fully cooperative and non-threatening to the alliance-an unlikely scenario. If somehow Russia did join NATO the new balance of power would transform the world. NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a mutual-defense pact between 32 countries of Europe and North America."

"The idea that Russia would ever be allowed to join NATO, or would even want to, seems ludicrous. But let's consider scenarios where that might be possible, and what the results could be. Doing so can help us see the value of both deterrence and engagement with Russia for long-term global peace and stability. This post was updated on October 25, 2025 to clarify participation (830 crew from 13 NATO nations) in NATO's Article 5."

NATO is a mutual-defense alliance of 32 European and North American countries founded in 1949 to deter Soviet expansion and now treat Russia as a primary security concern. The treaty binds members through Article 5, meaning an attack on one triggers a collective response; NATO invoked Article 5 after 9/11 and deployed roughly 830 crew from 13 nations in Operation Eagle Assist. Russia joining NATO would require a fundamental political and social transformation to become fully cooperative and non-threatening, a prospect described as unlikely. If Russia did join, the balance of global power and security dynamics would be profoundly transformed, affecting deterrence and engagement strategies.

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