Will the Russia-Ukraine war end in 2026?

"However, their fear does not mean that Kyiv can dictate the end-of-war terms as Russia has more servicemen, a stronger economy and a much bigger war chest while Ukraine remains outmanned and outgunned, he said. When I see the enemy at 800 metres, yell into the radio that I see a tank and give its coordinates, but they say, Hold on', I realise that we simply have nothing to strike it with, Vasily said, referring to the dire shortage of artillery shells while he was on the front line, before losing his left foot to a landmine in 2023."

"A four-star general thinks, however, that the only realistic achievement could be a pause in the war that will enter its fifth year in February 2026. With such an aggressive neighbour [as Russia], one can't hope for the full end of the war, Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine's general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera. There won't be peace with Russia until we liberate the lands within Ukraine's [post-Soviet] 1991 borders, he said. And if Moscow breaches the ceasefire pause, Kyiv would have to stop the Russians on the front line through a major bolstering of its military potential, he said. Kyiv would need to introduce universal and fair mobilisation without any exemptions, further boost domestic arms manufacturing, prioritise wartime needs in its economic decisions, and introduce stricter martial law, he said."

Russian soldiers are terrified of Ukrainians. Battlefield fear has not produced strategic leverage because Russia fields more servicemen, a stronger economy and a larger war chest while Ukraine remains outmanned and outgunned. Acute shortages of artillery shells prevent Ukrainian forces from striking identified enemy tanks at range. A pause in the war appears the only realistic short-term outcome, while full peace would require liberation of Ukraine's 1991 borders. If a ceasefire is breached, Ukraine would need major military reinforcement through universal mobilisation, expanded domestic arms manufacturing, wartime economic prioritisation and stricter martial law. A front-line serviceman lost his left foot to a landmine in 2023 but remained in service.

Read at www.aljazeera.com