"On paper, it looks like a three-team race: You have the defending champ New York Liberty, who still have star power -- Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones -- from last year's title run. Then there are A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, who look better poised to rekindle their dynasty than at any point since they won it all for the second straight time in 2023."
"There's a whopping 84% chance one of those three teams lifts the trophy, based on the implied probability of ESPN BET odds. That leaves just 16% between the remaining postseason squads: the Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries and Indiana Fever -- but although it's a long shot, it's still statistically possible one of those five could crash the championship party."
"Let's make the case for why each of those five teams could make a deeper run than expected. Note: "Elo simulated odds" are based on Elo ratings, which focus on a team's game-by-game results, with an emphasis on recent form. "SRS rating" is Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS), which is essentially a schedule-adjusted points per game differential."
Three teams — the New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx — stand as the primary favorites for the 2025 WNBA championship, anchored by Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, A'ja Wilson and MVP front-runner Napheesa Collier. ESPN BET implied probabilities assign an 84% combined chance to those teams, leaving 16% across the remaining postseason squads: Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries and Indiana Fever. Elo simulated odds and Basketball Reference’s SRS offer complementary evaluations of team strength. The Atlanta Dream are listed at +1000 by ESPN BET and cite Allisha Gray as their top contributor (7.6 wins added per 44 games).
Read at ESPN.com
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