From 2011 to 2023, analysis revealed that 67.5% of wide receivers and tight ends who scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches improved their touchdown counts the following season. For players scoring fewer than three touchdowns, the rebound rate was 81.3%. Notably, 87.5% of those with one or zero touchdowns saw greater success. In the latest season, 29 WR/TEs recorded fewer than five touchdowns, while running backs showed a similar trend, with 80% of players failing to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches rebounding the next year.
During the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there were 169 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 169, 114 (67.5%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 48 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 39 (81.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 16 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 14 (87.5%) found the end zone more often the next year.
Last season, 29 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables under three scores including Jake Ferguson (0), Elijah Moore (1), Jaylen Waddle (2), Dalton Schultz (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Hunter Henry (2) and Mike Gesicki (2).
There are 45 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 45, 36 (or 80.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
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