NYC families are fleeing before kindergarten. Free pre-K isn't always enough to keep them.

"Child care is just one piece of an interconnected web of affordability and education issues that influence whether families leave the city when they have children. Also in play: housing, availability of after-school programs, school quality, and navigating school admissions, whether for kindergarten or looking ahead to middle and high school. For many, having a second or third child also changes the calculus, several parents told Chalkbeat."

"The city's free prekindergarten program didn't stop thousands of families who applied to the program for 4-year-olds last year from leaving the public school system before kindergarten this year, according to Education Department application data. Roughly 52,400 children submitted applications for pre-K seats in the 2024-25 school year. But when it came time for those children to apply to kindergarten the following year, there was a considerable dropoff to about 46,370, a dip of about 12%."

"In the prior two years, the number of kindergarten and preschool applications more closely matched. It seems unlikely that the difference is explained by families moving to private school for kindergarten. Enrollment in the early grades in private schools has declined the last few years, said Ryan Coughlan, an associate professor at Baruch College's Marxe School of Public and International Affairs. (Enrollment at private schools has increased at middle and high schools.)"

Zohran Mamdani proposes free child care for all at an estimated $6 billion per year to encourage families with young children to remain in New York City. Child care is one element among housing availability, after-school programs, school quality, and school admissions that shapes whether families stay for elementary school; having additional children also changes family calculations. City prekindergarten applicants numbered roughly 52,400 for 2024–25 but kindergarten applications the next year fell to about 46,370, a decline near 12 percent, indicating many families left before kindergarten. Declining private early-grade enrollment suggests exits were not mainly to private schools, and some families relocated to nearby cities such as Jersey City when unable to find a suitable public school.

Read at Chalkbeat