Measles cases are rising in the U.S., with outbreaks reported in at least six states, attributed to declining vaccination rates exacerbated by COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. A new study published in JAMA suggests that even a minor increase in MMR vaccination could prevent millions of cases. The model assesses the potential impact of vaccination rates over 25 years, indicating that current rates could lead to over 850,000 measles cases, while a 10% decline could result in 11.1 million cases. Current MMR vaccination rates are around 92.7%, having decreased since pre-pandemic levels.
"That result -- that we're already at this tipping point for measles in the U.S. -- was a really striking finding that somewhat surprised us as well."
"If vaccination rates decline by just 10%, the model estimates 11.1 million cases of measles over 25 years."
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