There Were Still Old People When Life Expectancy Was 35

""Historically, no one lived past age 35." I've heard so many versions of this claim over the years, including recently from a prominent menopause influencer (implying that menopause is not "natural" because no one lived long enough to go through it). Every time someone states this "fact," a demographer loses a piece of their soul. What's the truth? When life expectancy was in the 30s, you were more likely to die in your 70s than in your 30s."

"Mortality under age 5 was extremely high historically. If you survived to age 5, your chances of living to old age were decent. I'm sure if you think about this for a minute, this will be obvious. But a picture is worth a thousand words: Sweden is demography-famous for its high-quality mortality data, which dates back centuries. In this figure, you can see a typical distribution of ages at death when life expectancy is 36."

Life expectancy is an average that can be driven down by very high mortality in infancy and early childhood. Historically, a large share of deaths occurred before age five, which strongly reduced overall average life expectancy. Individuals who survived past early childhood often had decent chances of reaching middle age and older, including their 50s, 60s, or 70s. High-quality historical data from places like Sweden and England show distributions and survival curves where many people lived to ages well beyond the reported average. Public health improvements have since greatly reduced childhood mortality, raising survival to older ages.

Read at Psychology Today