Has California housing become a buyer's market?

"Has California housing become a buyer's market with sellers losing control of pricing? My trusty spreadsheet reviewed a relatively new homebuying metric from Redfin that attempts to quantify the marketplace mystery: how many house hunters are looking to buy. Redfin combines the easily calculated supply number homes listed for sale with some statistical wizardry to estimate the corresponding number of potential buyers."

"By Redfin math, those eight Golden State markets had 35% more sellers 72,840 vs. 54,045 buyers. Redfin calls any market with at least 10% more sellers than buyers a buyer's market. When there are at least 10% more buyers, that's a seller's market. In between is seen as balanced. The 44 markets in the rest of the nation leaned even more heavily toward house hunters, with 43% more sellers: 617,753 vs. 433,119 buyers, also a buyer's market."

"Data debate Redfin's decidedly dour scorecard is controversial among industry gurus who have long defined the buyer/seller battle with curious calculations largely tied to a sales-to-listings ratio. Such math showed that just 11 of 50 major U.S. markets were in a buyer's market, according to a recent tally by Realtor.com. That was an increase from seven. And Zillow's own twist on this debate found that only four of 49 U.S. metros favored buyers in its latest report."

Redfin estimates buyer demand by combining listed homes (supply) with statistical modeling to approximate potential buyers. In December, Redfin tracked 50 major U.S. markets, including eight in California. Those eight California markets had 35% more sellers than buyers (72,840 sellers vs. 54,045 buyers), meeting Redfin's threshold for a buyer's market (at least 10% more sellers). Nationwide, the other 44 markets showed 43% more sellers (617,753 vs. 433,119), also a buyer's market. Redfin found 36 of 50 metros favored buyers, five favored sellers, and nine were balanced. Realtor.com and Zillow produced differing buyer/seller assessments using sales-to-listings-based methods.

Read at www.ocregister.com