"ICE said that the increase largely reflects calendar effects rather than a broad deterioration in borrower performance. Similar calendar-driven increases occurred in 2014, 2008 and 2003, each of which produced larger November delinquency jumps than this year's increase. While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we've seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments didn't post until early December, said Andy Walden, ICE's head of mortgage and housing market research."
"The inflow of newly delinquent borrowers was notable, with 609,000 homeowners who were current in October falling behind on payments in November, the largest single-month increase since May 2020. Transitions into deeper delinquency categories, including loans rolling from 30 to 60 days and from 60 to 90 days past due, also rose sharply. Prepayment activity retreated in November after reaching a three-and-a-half-year high in October. The monthly prepayment rate decreased by nearly 18% from the prior month to 0.83%."
Calendar effects were the primary driver of the November delinquency increase, producing spikes similar to 2014, 2008 and 2003 when payments posted later. A substantial inflow of newly delinquent borrowers occurred, with 609,000 homeowners falling behind in one month, and transitions into 60- and 90-day delinquencies rose sharply. Monthly prepayments retreated to 0.83% after an October peak. Foreclosure starts and sales declined month-over-month due to seasonal factors, but starts, sales and active inventory remained more than 20% above year-ago levels. Total properties 30+ days delinquent or in foreclosure rose to 2.34 million.
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