"This correction is mature in time and price. 50% of all stocks in the Russell 3000 are now down at least 20% from their 52-week highs, and among S&P 500 members, the figure exceeds 40%. The dramatic volatility roiling markets recently is not the beginning of a selloff. It's closer to the end."
"Wilson spent years arguing that the economy was much weaker for many companies and consumers than what headline economic statistics suggested. Rather than a single crash, weakness had moved sector by sector - tech first, then consumer goods, then the broader economy - meaning the usual markers of recession remained muted while pain mounted underneath. He called it a rolling recession."
"Wilson identified April 2025 as the recession's trough, when the White House's Liberation Day tariff announcement triggered market capitulation. Earnings revisions breadth staged a dramatic V-shaped rebound from that point, payroll revisions improved, and layoff data peaked and rolled over. The early-cycle recovery he had forecast was underway."
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who previously warned of a hidden rolling recession while Wall Street celebrated, now contends that recent market volatility represents the end of a correction rather than its beginning. He notes that 50% of Russell 3000 stocks have declined at least 20% from their 52-week highs, with over 40% of S&P 500 members experiencing similar declines. Wilson identified April 2025 as the recession's trough, marked by the White House's Liberation Day tariff announcement. Since then, earnings revisions, payroll data, and layoff metrics have improved, signaling an early-cycle recovery. He characterizes the current turbulence as a correction within a bull market, not a new downturn, suggesting investors who panicked this week arrived late to the selling.
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