"Now a group of scientists, including ones from NASA, is exploring options for a different near-Earth space rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, which the agency's Center for Near Earth Objects believes has a mere 0.00081 percent chance of hitting us - but a much larger four percent chance of hitting the Moon - in December 2032. Earlier this year, the asteroid made headlines after scientists identified it as having one of the highest chances of hitting the Earth on record."
"But even if it only strikes the Moon, the results could still be dangerous for astronauts in space, who could be battered by debris resulting from the collision. In a yet-to-be-peer-reviewed paper, the scientists argued that our best option to avoid that eventuality is to blow 2024 YR4 up altogether as part of a "kinetic disruption mission" - a notable escalation from NASA's 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which saw a spacecraft nudge an asteroid called Dimorphos off course by ramming it at high speed."
"The researchers found that there isn't enough time to launch a "reconnaissance mission" first to get a better idea of its mass - required data for a successful deflection attempt. Thanks to the James Webb Space Telescope observations, we know it measures nearly 300 feet in length, but its mass remains a notable unknown."
A near-Earth asteroid, 2024 YR4, currently has a 0.00081 percent chance of hitting Earth and about a four percent chance of striking the Moon in December 2032. A lunar impact could produce debris dangerous to astronauts and space assets. Scientists propose a kinetic disruption approach that would blow the asteroid apart, escalating beyond NASA's DART momentum-nudge demonstration. Observations from the James Webb Space Telescope estimate the object at nearly 300 feet long, but its mass remains uncertain. Limited lead time precludes a reconnaissance mission to better constrain mass, complicating precise deflection planning.
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