Intel Is Up 90% in 12 Months. Can It Actually Sustain This Comeback in 2026?

"Wall Street is comfortable paying this premium because, unlike before, Intel finally has the cash to build out the infrastructure. Analysts expect a quick ramp-up in earnings, with full-year 2026 EPS at $0.48, up 15%. In 2027, EPS is expected to double to nearly $1, and some analysts estimate it as high as $1.8."

"EBITDA could go from just $1.2 billion in 2024, all the way to $25.1 billion in 2028. If the AI rally continues, EBITDA could be much higher. But if Intel can trade at 40 times EBITDA like NVDA today, you're looking at a trillion-dollar company."

"The rally you are looking at today is following Intel's execution. Customers are ready to buy, but the capacity needs to be built out quickly, hopefully before the AI buildout starts waning."

Intel has regained credibility after a significant downturn, with stock rallying 90% in the past year. Despite anemic revenue growth and delayed profits, government investments and strategic stakes support long-term recovery prospects. The stock trades at 112 times current earnings, a premium justified by anticipated rapid earnings expansion. Analysts project 2026 EPS at $0.48 (up 15%) and 2027 EPS doubling to nearly $1, potentially reaching $1.80. At these rates, investors could pay less than 20 times 2028 earnings. EBITDA is expected to surge from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $25.1 billion by 2028. If Intel achieves NVDA-like valuation multiples, it could become a trillion-dollar company, though $500 billion is more realistic unless AI demand exceeds expectations.

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