"Nvidia closed the week at $182.81, down 1.4% from the prior week's close. Three distinct storylines emerged that matter far more than the short-term price action. Nvidia's 1.4% decline slightly underperformed the S&P 500, down 1.29% over the same period. More notably, Nvidia lagged the semiconductor sector, as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) gained 1.51% for the week. Year-to-date, Nvidia sits down 1.98% while semiconductors broadly are up 13.21%."
"UBS lifted its price target on Nvidia from $235 to $245, maintaining a Buy rating. The firm cited "positive earnings backdrop and supply chain trends" heading into next month's GTC event, Nvidia's annual developer conference that typically serves as a product roadmap reveal. UBS expects fiscal Q4 results to exceed company guidance, banking on robust gross margins and sustained production growth. The $245 target implies roughly 34% upside from current levels."
"Capital expenditure cycles at Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) are driving semiconductor demand. The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) amassed $1 billion in assets, with Nvidia as a top holding alongside Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). The fund's 59% concentration in its top 10 holdings underscores how much of the AI chip thesis rests on a handful of players."
Nvidia closed the week at $182.81, down 1.4%, modestly underperforming the S&P 500 and lagging the semiconductor sector where ETFs gained ground. UBS raised its price target to $245 and maintained a Buy rating, citing a positive earnings backdrop, supply chain trends, and expectations that fiscal Q4 will exceed guidance on strong gross margins and production growth. Hyperscaler capital expenditure plans at Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are materially influencing semiconductor demand and revenue trajectories. New ETF inflows, including a $1 billion PHLX fund, show concentrated exposure to a few AI-chip leaders. Supply easing and Blackwell momentum underpin upside expectations.
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