ESPN's new app is exceeding expectations so far - but its biggest challenge is still ahead

"ESPN's streaming services generated an estimated 2.1 million subscribers in the US from August 21 through September, subscription data firm Antenna said on Monday. About 1.2 million, or 57%, of those signups were for the full version of ESPN, which the sports network made available outside of the pay-TV bundle for the first time ever for $30 a month. The rest were for ESPN Select ( formerly ESPN+), which has a smaller subset of live sports, some original shows."

"ESPN's direct-to-consumer service is on pace to exceed analysts' estimates. Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall predicted that stand-alone ESPN would score 1.5 million to 2 million subscribers by year's end, with Wolfe Research's Peter Supino calling for 1.75 million and Lightshed's Rich Greenfield estimating 2 million in that span. ESPN's stand-alone service is nearing those targets in just over a month, with the NBA and college basketball seasons right around the corner."

"However, it may be too soon to say that ESPN has solved streaming. ESPN's new subscription service will face a formidable test in January, when the NFL and college football seasons wind down. It's way easier to cancel streaming services than cable, as YouTube TV has learned the hard way by shedding subscribers after the end of the football season. If ESPN's cord-cutter-friendly service can't maintain its momentum, it might not solve the cable network's existential pay-TV problem after all."

ESPN's new streaming offerings attracted an estimated 2.1 million US subscribers from August 21 through September, with about 1.2 million signing up for the full $30-per-month standalone ESPN tier and the remainder choosing ESPN Select (formerly ESPN+). Industry analysts' year-end projections ranged from 1.5 million to 2 million, and ESPN's early pace approaches those targets ahead of NBA and college basketball seasons. The service faces a major retention test in January as NFL and college football end, and cord-cutters can cancel more easily than cable subscribers, creating risk to ESPN's pay-TV revenue model.

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