The impending budget from Ontario Premier Doug Ford's government is set against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump's tumultuous trade policies. These tariffs have significantly affected the auto and steel industries, leading to layoffs and economic uncertainty in Canada. As Ford prepares to present his budget for the third consecutive term, there are indications that balancing the budget may be deprioritized in favor of providing financial support to affected workers and businesses. Experts suggest that substantial spending in response to the tariffs could hinder Ford's earlier goal of achieving fiscal balance by the 2026-2027 year.
U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic trade war will loom large over Doug Ford's provincial budget, with experts saying billions in financial aid to impacted workers and businesses will throw a wrench in the premier's plan to balance Ontario's books next year.
Ford himself conceded that his government has to weight its priorities carefully in this moment, hinting that balancing the books may not happen.
As recently as last fall, the Ford government said it would balance Ontario's books by the 2026-2027 fiscal year. It had projected a $1.5 billion deficit in this spring budget.
I would look for quite a bit of spending, especially in the face of tariffs. I think that it's a reasonable expectation to conclude that a path to balance might be impacted by extra spending that needs to occur because of the tariff war.
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