"New calculations indicate that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is much less likely to hit Earth than earlier measurements suggested, reducing its impact risk from 3.1% to 1.5%."
"Richard Moissl notes that as data comes in, the uncertainty surrounding 2024 YR4's impact path is diminishing, which decreases its chance of hitting Earth below 1%."
"The first sighting of YR4 triggered the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) to act, as it was the first asteroid with a notable risk identified since the 2013 Chelyabinsk incident."
"As new asteroid-hunting telescopes come online, astronomers expect many more close calls like YR4, emphasizing that the question is not if, but when an asteroid threat will occur."
Recent observations have shown a significant decrease in the perceived risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, lowering the estimated chance from 3.1% to 1.5%. Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency believes this likelihood may continue to decline further. The asteroid has prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to take action, marking a pivotal test of international protocols established post-Chelyabinsk. As telescopes improve, the detection of close calls will likely rise, highlighting ongoing efforts in planetary defense against asteroid threats.
Read at Nature
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