Recent observations from the James Webb Space Telescope have increased the probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon to 4.3%. NASA indicated that these observations improved the trajectory data significantly. Initially, the asteroid posed a 1% risk to Earth, but that number was revised down to near zero, while the risk to the Moon persists. There is no concern for Earth's orbit if a collision occurs, although human presence on the Moon could be jeopardized.
NASA stated that data from the James Webb Space Telescope improved our knowledge of where Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20 percent.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 4.3 percent chance of colliding with the Moon in 7.5 years, but this won't affect the Moon's orbit.
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