"if a party wins a contest like this by just a few hundred votes (or perhaps ever fewer Reform UK won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection last year by just six votes), it is irrational to draw broad conclusions about the state of UK politics over a result that could easily have gone the other way had it not been for a few random incidents (like activists not closing the door in a cafe). But politics isn't rational; a win will firm up a narrative that will shape the way the main parties do politics in the months ahead."
"The choice at today's by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division. Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back. Reform's Matthew Goodwin thinks people who aren't white can't be English and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more tax."
"whoever wins, the result will confirm that we now have multi-party politics trying to operate in an electoral system constructed for two-party politics, which is quite different."
The Gorton and Denton byelection represents a significant contest with all three major parties—Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens—viewing themselves as best positioned to win. Political scientists note that victories by narrow margins in such elections can lead to irrational conclusions about broader political trends, yet these results significantly influence party strategy and political narratives. The byelection reflects the current reality of multi-party politics operating within an electoral system designed for two-party competition. Party leaders have issued personal appeals to voters, with Labour's Keir Starmer framing the choice as between unity and division, while emphasizing Reform's controversial positions on immigration and taxation.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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