"They've never won this constituency, but they were capable of getting around a third of the vote around 20, 30 years ago. They've now got 1.9% [of the vote]. That is an all-time low for the Conservative Party."
"They only stood a chance if two of their opponents were evenly split, for instance, Labour and the Greens, and Reform managed to get above the line. At the edge of the of the day, the parties got 29%, which is in line with its standing in the opinion polls."
"Given that the constituency does contain a significant proportion of minority voters, and given that minority voters in general are largely disinclined to back Reform, they are after all, less concerned about immigration policies. This is not a constituency Reform were likely to do particularly well in also, but their vote was up by 15 points."
The Gorton and Denton by-election resulted in a historic Green Party victory, with Hannah Spencer elected as MP and Zack Polanski's party securing 14,980 votes. The Conservative Party achieved an all-time low of 1.9%, down from approximately one-third of the vote 20-30 years ago. Labour, which won the seat with 50.8% in the 2024 General Election, fell to third place. Reform's vote increased by 15 points despite the constituency's significant minority population, which typically opposes Reform policies. Sir John Curtice noted the Conservatives only had a chance if their opponents split evenly, but combined opposition parties received 29%, aligning with current polling standings.
#uk-by-election #green-party-victory #conservative-party-decline #electoral-shifts #gorton-and-denton
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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