"Once election outcomes are determined and uncertainty is resolved, markets have historically staged powerful rallies. Historical data shows the S&P 500 has produced an average return of 19% in the 12 months following midterm elections, with no negative annual return recorded since 1939."
"Bitcoin has shown an even stronger pattern in the limited number of cycles since its emergence as a liquid asset. In the three post-midterm years on record, the cryptocurrency delivered an average gain of 54%, according to the report."
"Midterm election years have often brought meaningful drawdowns before the subsequent recovery. The S&P 500 has experienced an average peak-to-trough decline of about 16% during midterm election years, making it the weakest period in the presidential cycle."
Binance Research analysis reveals that risk assets consistently rebound following U.S. midterm election cycles. The S&P 500 has produced an average return of 19% in the 12 months after midterm elections, with no negative annual returns since 1939. Bitcoin demonstrates an even stronger pattern, delivering an average gain of 54% across the three post-midterm years on record. Once election uncertainty resolves, markets historically stage powerful rallies. However, midterm election years themselves typically experience volatility and drawdowns, with the S&P 500 averaging peak-to-trough declines of approximately 16% during these periods, representing the weakest phase in the presidential cycle.
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