Fionnan Sheahan: It's the economy, stupid, and whether the voters are feeling the benefits in their pockets

"By-elections are a strange beast and the fragmentation of the political system has created an even more novel event. It wasn't always this way."

"Twenty-five years ago next month, there appeared to be a result of significance in a by-election in Tipperary South. The well-regarded Fine Gael TD Theresa Ahearn had died."

"Fine Gael had just gone through a rather fractious leadership change, with John Bruton being ousted and Michael Noonan taking over. Bertie Ahern and the Celtic Tiger were in full roar."

The current political landscape shows a disconnect between economic performance and voter sentiment. By-elections are becoming increasingly unpredictable due to political fragmentation. Historical context reveals that significant events, such as the by-election in Tipperary South twenty-five years ago, were influenced by leadership changes and economic conditions. The past illustrates how political dynamics can shift rapidly, impacting voter behavior and party performance in elections.

Read at Independent