Four intractable crises facing Colombia's next president

Women in Catatumbo give birth at home for months because travel routes are unsafe and people fear being caught in fighting between guerrilla groups. Babies often take months to be registered. Farmers avoid movement due to mines, and children hide when drones fly overhead carrying explosives. Many residents remain confined, while those able to leave have fled, reducing the population by nearly 100,000 in a year. The presidential election takes place with the war as a backdrop and with other deep national wounds not fully addressed by candidates. The next government will inherit structural problems and must manage competing visions for improving the economy, public finances, security, and inequality.

"In Catatumbo, a region on the border with Venezuela, women have been giving birth at home for months. It is not for lack of hospitals but because they are afraid to take the roads and get caught in the crossfire between two guerrilla groups. Babies take months to be registered, farmers fear stepping on mines, and children hide when they see drones flying overhead laden with explosives."

"Those who stayed do not venture out and live locked up as if during a pandemic. Those who could leave fled, and the region has lost nearly 100,000 residents over the past year. We are not part of this war, but we are in it, a community leader told EL PAIS, fearing he could be killed."

"Whoever wins on June 21, 2026 a runoff is expected will inherit a country with structural problems no president has been able to solve. Polls show only three candidates have real chances, and the three have proposed very different solutions for the same old problems. Ivan Cepeda, a left-wing senator, promises to continue Gustavo Petro's social legacy."

"Whoever wins the elections will inherit a Colombia very different from that of 2022, one in which completely different visions coexist about the best way to improve the economy, public finances, security, and to close inequality gaps, says Victor Aguilar, Crisis Group analyst for Latin America. The next government will have to show great political skill to reach agreements if it wants to maintain governability, given that a large sector of the population will not share its vision."

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