Catholics globally celebrated the election of Robert Prevost as Pope Leo XIV following Pope Francis' death. Prevost, a Chicago native, is a linguist and has extensive experience in Latin America and Europe. His election defied norms, surprising both bookies and AI predictions. Scientists from Bocconi University utilized network science to predict his succession by analyzing patterns within the conclave. Voting is conducted privately until a cardinal receives a two-thirds majority, marked by the symbolic white smoke released from the Sistine Chapel chimney.
When a Pope dies or resigns, cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote in the upcoming papal election (the 'conclave'). Voting takes place by secret ballot under Michelangelo's famous painted ceiling at the sacred Sistine Chapel in Vatican City.
Study author Leonardo Rizzo, PhD candidate and data scientist at Bocconi University, said on X: 'We 'guessed' the Pope using network science. We relied on three criteria that determine the 'prominence' of a cardinal in the ecclesiastical network.'
However, a team of scientists claim to have managed to do so using network science - the academic field which studies vast and complex networks. In an exhaustive study published online, they analysed 'the network of the conclave' to correctly find the successor to Pope Francis before his announcement.
Dubbed the 'Latin Yankee' by the Italian press, he's a far cry from the more traditional papal image - which is perhaps why bookies and AI alike failed to correctly determine the result.
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