Out of the seven new NFL head coaches, who's the most (and least) set up for success?

"We set out to quantify what kind of situation each of 2025's new head coaches is walking into. Specifically, we created a regression model that looks at last season's team quality (using a mix of Elo ratings and SRS ratings); average roster age across offense, defense and special teams; and the age and track record of their quarterbacks (using a QB's established level of Approximate Value, or AV, per season from the past three years)."

"We can't rule out another surprise run like that this season, especially since a number of the coaching hires are taking over jobs with either veteran QBs who have a history of success, or young ones still chasing their full potential. For that reason alone, any could prove more transformative than expected. Still, history shows that certain general patterns do tend to separate new coaches who succeed from those who don't."

Predicting NFL outcomes is often futile, but recent hires showed clear variance in immediate impact. The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers produced a combined 21-13 record under new coaches, while the Washington Commanders surged to the NFC title game with rookie Jayden Daniels under Dan Quinn. Surprise breakout seasons remain possible when coaching hires inherit either proven veteran quarterbacks or young passers with upside. A regression model quantifies each 2025 hire's situation using last season's team quality (Elo and SRS), average roster age, and quarterback age plus three-year Approximate Value (AV).

Read at ESPN.com