"In the last two weeks, Rick Rieder's odds on Polymarket of becoming the next Fed chair have surged from low-single digits to nearly 50%, putting the veteran Wall Streeter far in the lead over second and third place candidates Kevin Warsh (29%) and Christopher Waller (6%)."
"The current chief Jerome Powell is a former lawyer, private equity partner, and Treasury official, while his predecessors Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan were PhD economists (the former a Princeton professor, the latter a consultant and policy adviser)."
"Today, Rieder heads the Global Fixed Income franchise at BlackRock, overseeing a $2.4 trillion portfolio that's comprises one dollar in six of the $14 trillion entrusted to the world's largest asset manager."
"And nothing's a bigger deal in Trump's policy decisions than what makes the bond market thrive or tank-witness his reversal of the tariff threat versus Europe over Greenland after investors dumped Treasuries and rates spiked."
Rick Rieder's market-implied chances of becoming Fed chair jumped from low-single digits to nearly 50%, placing him well ahead of other candidates. Rieder's career centers on active participation in global bond markets as a trader and asset manager, a stark contrast to recent Fed chiefs with legal or academic backgrounds. Rieder runs BlackRock's Global Fixed Income business, overseeing $2.4 trillion within the firm's $14 trillion in assets. Market participants argue his ear-to-the-market approach and experience through cycles could produce pragmatic, market-responsive policymaking. Rieder's bond-market expertise would influence policy decisions sensitive to investor reactions and Treasury yields.
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