Democrats currently lack a unifying national candidate three years before the 2028 primary, with a deep bench but no standout figure comparable to Barack Obama in 2004. Gavin Newsom has gained momentum by adopting confrontational, Trump-like social-media tactics that energize parts of the base and provoke MAGA anger. Newsom’s remaining governorship enables a ballot initiative to challenge California’s nonpartisan redistricting commission, offering a potential countermeasure to Republican gerrymandering in Texas. Nationally, Republicans retain a redistricting advantage, but California’s moves could blunt specific GOP efforts and alter the map.
They are hungry for leaders, for heroes, for national politicians who might, like a young Barack Obama, inspire them anew. The bench, for 2028, is relatively deep - there is no shortage of governors, senators, former Biden-administration officials, and stray outsiders who may enter the primary - but no single man or woman has emerged from the heap to captivate millions.
If last year was brat summer, this summer - the second half of it, anyway - might belong to Gavin Newsom. His surge has been grounded in a native understanding of what at least part of the Democratic base desires. His social-media following has exploded as he's started to literally post like Donald Trump, mimicking the president's grammar and memes while mocking his supporters. The parodies, which include absurd AI images of himself, are shallow, but they've struck a nerve.
Unlike New York, where Governor Kathy Hochul won't be able to retaliate with her own Democratic gerrymander until 2027, Newsom will be able to put an initiative on the ballot this fall that could overturn California's nonpartisan commission and allow Democrats to counter Texas. Nationally, Republicans hold a clear advantage in this redistricting war, but California can, at the very minimum, neuter Texas.
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