Walters: Prop. 50 is likely a stepping stone for Newsom's nascent presidential campaign

"The odds are astronomically high that California voters will ratify Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom's scheme to grab five more congressional seats for his Democratic Party. However, passage may have little or no impact on next year's congressional elections since it merely offsets the five-seat grab that Texas Republicans enacted earlier at President Donald Trump's behest. What happens vis-a-vis redistricting in other states, particularly those controlled by Republicans, is more likely to determine the 2026 election's parameters"

"That said, Newsom's audacious confrontation of Trump is a major step toward capturing his party's presidential nomination in 2028 a prize he still insists, with rapidly decreasing credibility, he has not decided to pursue. By framing Prop. 50 as a tool to block Trump's authoritarian tendencies, Newsom emerges as the de facto leader of a political party that is trying to find a way forward after last year's embarrassing loss."

California voters are highly likely to ratify Proposition 50, which would add five congressional seats to Democrats but largely offsets an earlier five-seat gain by Texas Republicans, limiting immediate impact on next year's congressional elections. The ultimate shape of the House in 2026 depends more on redistricting outcomes in other states, especially Republican-controlled ones. Newsom's aggressive move against Trump and his framing of Prop. 50 as a bulwark against authoritarian tendencies elevate his standing within the Democratic Party. His fundraising for the campaign generates a list of potential presidential supporters and bolsters his visibility for a possible 2028 run.

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