Recent missile attacks by Israel and Iran signify a shift towards potential regional war, last seen in the 1980s. For the first time, Iran has faced direct assaults targeting both military and symbolic assets. While a temporary ceasefire has halted immediate conflict, uncertainty over Iran's future governance remains. The Iranian regime, despite asserting military resilience, faces increasing legitimacy challenges and internal purges, raising questions about its survival. The U.S. administration framed the military action as necessary for eliminating threats, but the long-term effectiveness of such measures is in doubt, indicating a complex political environment ahead.
The idea that a decades-old regime could be brought down from an Israeli aerial campaign without boots on the ground or domestic support has once again proven to be fantasy.
Iran's political and military infrastructure remains largely intact, suggesting that despite the Israeli strikes, the regime’s fundamental power structure is resilient.
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