Ray Dalio warns 'we're heading into very, very dark times' and says the solution comes from a Chinese proverb: 'A smart rabbit has 3 holes' | Fortune

"Legendary billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the future of the United States and the United Kingdom, stating he is not optimistic about either nation's trajectory and believes "we're heading into very, very dark times." Drawing on his own proprietary study of 500 years of history, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, points to a predictable 80-year cycle that suggests an era of significant global and internal strife is upon us."

"Dalio's framework is built on five major forces that drive history in cycles: a money and debt force, internal conflict, geopolitical conflict, acts of nature, and human inventiveness, particularly technology. He argues that both the U.S. and the U.K. are exhibiting clear symptoms of a cycle nearing a dangerous phase. "The U.K. has a financial problem, the government has a debt problem," Dalio explained in an appearance on the " Diary of a CEO " podcast."

"While that's arguable, what is not is that productivity in the U.K. has been remarkably flat for roughly 20 years. Diane Coyle, a professor of public policy at the University of Cambridge, talked to NPR's Planet Money about it in 2022. "We've had flatlining productivity since the mid-2000s," she said. "And while compared to other countries, they've had slowdowns, we've just had a much worse slowdown than anybody.""

A proprietary study of 500 years of history identifies a predictable 80-year cycle that often precedes periods of significant global and internal strife. The framework highlights five driving forces: money and debt, internal conflict, geopolitical conflict, acts of nature, and human inventiveness, especially technology. The U.S. and the U.K. display symptoms consistent with a cycle approaching a dangerous phase. The U.K. faces a financial and government-debt problem that squeezes the economy as debts rise relative to income. Large wealth and opportunity gaps are fueling intense internal divisions and eroding trust. The U.K. also shows weaker inventiveness, less robust capital markets, and roughly twenty years of flat productivity characterized as a "productivity puzzle."

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