"As a global macro investor for over 50 years, I've had to study the cause-and-effect relationships that drive history in order to place my bets. What I found is that all monetary orders, political orders, and geopolitical orders rise, evolve, and collapse in a repeating pattern I call "the Big Cycle"-typically lasting about 75 years, give or take about 30."
"I believe that the times ahead will be radically different from what most people have gotten used to-that they will be more like the tumultuous pre-1945 era than what we have experienced since the end of World War II."
"With that perspective, watching what is happening now is like watching a movie that I have seen many times before because events are transpiring in the same ways as I have seen them transpire many times before."
A global macro investor with over 50 years of experience identifies recurring patterns in world history through studying cause-and-effect relationships across 500 years of data. These patterns form what is termed the Big Cycle, lasting roughly 75 years with variations. The world currently occupies Stage 5 of this cycle, immediately preceding Stage 6, which represents breakdown and great disorder. The investor's long-term perspective reveals that contemporary events mirror historical patterns previously witnessed multiple times, creating a sense of familiarity with unfolding global developments. Most people experience shock at current events because nothing comparable has occurred within their lifetimes, and they focus on daily events rather than understanding the deeper structural forces driving monetary, political, and geopolitical transformations.
#big-cycle-theory #geopolitical-orders #historical-patterns #macro-economics #world-order-transitions
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