The 5 Big 'Known Unknowns' of Donald Trump's New War With Iran

"During his career as a real estate mogul, Donald Trump repeatedly bankrupted casinos. In his second term as president, Trump continues to indulge his love of high-stakes gambits-and the war-entirely-of-personal-choice he launched over the weekend with Iran might be the biggest gamble yet of his entire political career."

"It was a war that almost everyone could see coming-the US military buildup has been underway for months and, in many ways, Trump's been on this road since May 8, 2018, when he jettisoned the Iranian nuclear deal known as the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which had been carefully negotiated by the Obama administration to limit Iran's path toward an atomic weapon."

"All of modern history tells us that upheaval in Iran is the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings, with the potential of enormous yet-to-be-understood consequences that could unfold for decades. After all, the US is still dealing with the downstream consequences of the last upheaval in Iran nearly a half-century ago."

Trump has launched a military conflict with Iran that represents an exceptionally high-stakes gamble in his political career, mirroring his history of risky business decisions. The conflict stems from Trump's May 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement, which had been negotiated to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities. While the military buildup and eventual conflict were widely anticipated, the death of Iran's supreme leader during initial operations significantly escalates dangers for Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the region, and the world. Iran's retaliatory strikes against multiple Gulf states were also foreseen. The critical uncertainty lies in the conflict's duration, scope, and impact on Iran's regime. Historical precedent demonstrates that Iranian upheaval creates far-reaching consequences lasting decades, as evidenced by ongoing effects from the 1979 revolution.

Read at WIRED